Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects

Course OG-010

Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects

Download PDF

Classroom

15 sessions
12 - 16 October 2026 €1,800 Register
9 - 13 November 2026 €2,875 Register
14 - 18 December 2026 €2,425 Register
18 - 22 January 2027 €3,215 Register
15 - 19 February 2027 €2,875 Register
15 - 19 March 2027 €3,400 Register
17 - 21 May 2027 €1,800 Register
21 - 25 June 2027 €2,875 Register
16 - 20 August 2027 €3,215 Register
20 - 24 September 2027 €2,875 Register
18 - 22 October 2027 €3,400 Register
15 - 19 November 2027 €4,815 Register
20 - 24 December 2027 €1,800 Register
Scroll for more

Online / Live

15 sessions
Scroll for more

Introduction

Course overview

Why Attend

Energy projects operate under conditions where volatility, technical complexity, and long investment cycles make uncertainty a critical factor in success. Managing this uncertainty effectively requires more than traditional risk registers—it demands structured modeling and disciplined decision frameworks.

This course provides practical techniques to model uncertainty, quantify risk exposure, and support high-impact decisions across the project lifecycle. Participants will learn how to transform uncertain variables into actionable insights, improving confidence in investment, planning, and operational decisions.

Course Methodology

The program is designed to balance theory with practical application through:

  • Industry-based case studies from oil, gas, and energy projects
  • Guided exercises in uncertainty modeling and risk evaluation
  • Group discussions and decision-making simulations
  • Step-by-step demonstrations of analytical techniques
  • Practical frameworks that can be immediately applied in the workplace

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Model uncertainty using structured quantitative approaches
  • Apply risk-based decision-making techniques in complex projects
  • Evaluate project scenarios using probabilistic analysis
  • Assess the impact of uncertainty on cost, schedule, and performance
  • Improve decision quality through data-driven insights
  • Integrate uncertainty modeling into project governance and reporting

Target Audience

This course is suitable for:

  • Project Managers and Engineers in energy and oil & gas
  • Risk and Planning Specialists
  • Investment and Financial Analysts
  • Operations and Asset Management Professionals
  • Decision-makers involved in capital and strategic projects

Target Competencies

Participants will develop capabilities in:

  • Uncertainty modeling and probabilistic thinking
  • Quantitative risk analysis
  • Scenario development and evaluation
  • Risk-based decision-making
  • Strategic planning under uncertainty
  • Communication of risk insights to stakeholders

What you will achieve

Learning objectives

  • Model uncertainty using structured quantitative approaches
  • Apply risk-based decision-making techniques in complex projects
  • Evaluate project scenarios using probabilistic analysis
  • Assess the impact of uncertainty on cost, schedule, and performance
  • Improve decision quality through data-driven insights
  • Integrate uncertainty modeling into project governance and reporting

Who should attend

Target audience

  • This course is suitable for:
  • Project Managers and Engineers in energy and oil & gas
  • Risk and Planning Specialists
  • Investment and Financial Analysts
  • Operations and Asset Management Professionals
  • Decision-makers involved in capital and strategic projects
  • Target Competencies
  • Participants will develop capabilities in:

Methodology

Learning approach

  • Industry-based case studies from oil, gas, and energy projects
  • Guided exercises in uncertainty modeling and risk evaluation
  • Group discussions and decision-making simulations
  • Step-by-step demonstrations of analytical techniques
  • Practical frameworks that can be immediately applied in the workplace

Course content

Five focused days of learning and application

Day 1

Foundations of Uncertainty in Energy Projects

  • Understanding uncertainty vs. risk in energy environments
  • Sources of uncertainty (market, technical, geopolitical, operational)
  • Risk management frameworks in energy projects
  • Techniques for identifying and structuring uncertainty
  • Building a robust risk and uncertainty register
  • Qualitative assessment and prioritization

Day 2

Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling

  • Introduction to probabilistic modeling concepts
  • Key statistical tools for uncertainty analysis
  • Defining input distributions and assumptions
  • Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
  • Introduction to simulation techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo concepts)
  • Interpreting and validating model outputs

Day 3

Risk-Based Decision Analysis

  • Principles of decision-making under uncertainty
  • Decision trees and expected value concepts
  • Evaluating alternatives using risk-adjusted metrics
  • Risk appetite and decision criteria
  • Scenario comparison and trade-off analysis
  • Case study: Energy investment decision

Day 4

Integrated Risk Modeling for Projects

  • Linking cost, schedule, and performance risks
  • Modeling dependencies and correlations
  • Scenario planning and stress testing
  • Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
  • Introduction to risk modeling tools (conceptual overview)
  • Practical workshop: building an integrated model

Day 5

Embedding Risk-Based Decision Making

  • Applying risk insights across the project lifecycle
  • Governance and risk reporting frameworks
  • Communicating uncertainty to senior stakeholders
  • Supporting strategic and operational decisions
  • Lessons learned and industry best practices
  • Final group exercise and action planning

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What does Uncertainty Modeling & Risk-Based Decision Making in Energy Projects (OG-010) cover?

This course covers Oil and Gas through a structured five-day outline focused on practical application, discussion, and implementation planning.

When is the next available session?

The next scheduled session starts on 12 - 16 October 2026, with additional classroom dates and mirrored Online / Live options listed in the course schedules section.

Who should attend this course?

This course is suitable for:, Project Managers and Engineers in energy and oil & gas, Risk and Planning Specialists

Is bilingual course delivery available?

Yes. All course materials and presentations are provided in English, while bilingual explanation and discussion support may be available depending on the selected location and trainer availability. For example, when attending a course in Istanbul, you may request a Turkish-speaking trainer to explain the English course content in Turkish. Arabic explanation support may also be requested at this location. Other languages are available in selected cities. You can choose your preferred language support as an optional preference during registration.

How can I register for a session?

Use any Register button next to the available course dates to open the participant registration page and submit your booking request for the selected session.

Is this course available online as well as classroom-based?

Yes. The course detail page includes both classroom sessions and Online / Live sessions, with online options aligned to the same course dates for easier planning.

Where are classroom sessions delivered?

Current classroom venues include Kuala lumpur, Barcelona, London, Munich, Madrid, Rome.

How long is the training programme?

The programme runs for five days, with up to five training hours per day, from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM. Each programme includes a total of 25 accredited training hours.