Global Learning for Operational Leaders
Course OG-011
Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects
Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational... The outline covers Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects, Quantitative Risk A...
- 5 daysClassroom or online
- 15Upcoming dates
- 7Cities
- €1,625Fees from
Classroom
15 sessions
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Online / Live
15 sessions
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Introduction
Course overview
Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational risks. Traditional deterministic approaches often fall short in capturing the full range of possible outcomes.
This course introduces structured probabilistic techniques that enable professionals to quantify uncertainty, evaluate risk exposure, and make informed decisions. Participants will learn how to apply risk-based thinking to exploration, development, and production projects, improving both financial performance and operational resilience.
What you will achieve
Learning objectives
- Apply probabilistic methods to assess project risks
- Model uncertainty using appropriate statistical distributions
- Perform risk-based evaluations of petroleum projects
- Use decision analysis tools to compare project alternatives
- Interpret results from quantitative risk models
- Integrate probabilistic analysis into project planning and investment decisions
Who should attend
Target audience
- Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers
- Project Managers in oil & gas projects
- Risk and Reliability Engineers
- Planning and Cost Control Professionals
- Financial Analysts and Investment Decision-Makers
- Professionals involved in exploration, development, and production
Methodology
Learning approach
- Real-world case studies from upstream, midstream, and downstream projects
- Hands-on exercises in probabilistic risk assessment
- Group discussions and scenario-based simulations
- Step-by-step demonstrations of decision analysis tools
- Practical frameworks for immediate workplace application
Complete course outline
Five focused days of learning and application
The timings provided are estimates and may vary depending on the number of participants and the discussions taking place during the sessions. They are indicative only and do not constitute a binding commitment.
Day 1
Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects
- Overview of risk in exploration, development, and production
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches
- Types of risks: subsurface, technical, economic, operational
- Risk identification techniques and structuring uncertainty
- Coffee break
- Risk identification techniques and structuring uncertainty (continued)
- Building a petroleum project risk register
- Introduction to probability concepts and distributions
Day 2
Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques
- Statistical foundations for probabilistic analysis
- Defining input variables and uncertainty ranges
- Probability distributions (normal, lognormal, triangular, etc.)
- Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
- Coffee break
- Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers (continued)
- Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation concepts
- Practical exercises in quantitative risk modeling
Day 3
Decision Analysis for Petroleum Investments
- Decision-making frameworks in oil & gas
- Decision trees and expected monetary value (EMV)
- Risk vs. reward trade-offs in petroleum projects
- Portfolio decision-making concepts
- Coffee break
- Portfolio decision-making concepts (continued)
- Value of information in exploration decisions
- Case study: Drilling investment evaluation
Day 4
Integrated Cost, Schedule & Production Risk Modeling
- Linking cost, schedule, and production uncertainties
- Modeling dependencies and correlations
- Production forecasting under uncertainty
- Coffee break
- Production forecasting under uncertainty (continued)
- Scenario planning and stress testing
- Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
- Tools and software overview (conceptual)
Day 5
Risk-Based Decision Making & Project Optimization
- Embedding probabilistic analysis into project lifecycle
- Risk-informed planning and budgeting
- Communicating probabilistic results to stakeholders
- Governance and reporting of risk in petroleum projects
- Coffee break
- Governance and reporting of risk in petroleum projects (continued)
- Industry best practices and lessons learned
- Final group case study and presentations
Course FAQs
Questions about this course
What participants and training managers usually ask before booking Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects. Can't find your answer?
What does Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects (OG-011) cover?
This course covers Oil and Gas through a structured five-day outline focused on practical application, discussion, and implementation planning.
When is the next available session?
The next scheduled session starts on 16 - 20 November 2026. See the course schedules section for the available dates and delivery formats.
Who should attend this course?
Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers, Project Managers in oil & gas projects, Risk and Reliability Engineers
Is bilingual course delivery available?
Yes. All course materials and presentations are provided in English, while bilingual explanation and discussion support may be available depending on the selected location and trainer availability. For example, when attending a course in Istanbul, you may request a Turkish-speaking trainer to explain the English course content in Turkish. Arabic explanation support may also be requested at this location. Other languages are available in selected cities. You can choose your preferred language support as an optional preference during registration.
How can I register for a session?
Use any Register button next to the available course dates to open the participant registration page and submit your booking request for the selected session.
Is this course available online as well as classroom-based?
Check the course schedules section for currently published classroom and Online / Live sessions.
Where are classroom sessions delivered?
Current classroom venues include Paris, Munich, Barcelona, Amsterdam, London, Cape Town, Vienna.
How long is the training programme?
The programme runs for five days from 09:00 to 14:00, which gives 25 contact hours, including a daily 30-minute break (22.5 hours of instruction).
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